Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Data Spin

From an Orlando Sentinel article, "Early voters crowd polls in Orlando area as registration swells":
McCain officials say they're winning the absentee vote, with about 295,000 Republicans requesting absentee ballots statewide, compared with 199,000 Democrats.
Question: If more Republicans than Democrats are requesting absentee ballots, which of the following is true?

A) The Republican nominee is winning, since all Republicans will vote the party line, as will all Democrats.
B) Democrats tend to work where they can get time off to vote (either early or on Election Day) or have shifts outside the traditional "work day" of 9-5. More Republicans need to vote absentee because they can't make it to the polls during the work day.
C) Republicans are rich and can afford to travel more, and therefore need absentee ballots because they'll actually be absent.
D) The final tally on Election Day won't be the final tally, as the high number of absentee ballots will necessitate holding off on a final declaration until they've all been accounted for.

At the end of the day, most data can be made to say whatever you want, with the right spin.

2 comments:

  1. Yep, people try to make predictions about what's going to happen to influence people to follow the supposed crowd.

    Personally, I've met more Republicans who say they're voting Democrat than vice-versa. In fact, I don't know of a Democrat who's said they're voting Republican.

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  2. I believe you listed that answer as a fifth choice, only you forgot to put a little E) in front of it.

    ;)

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